A Decade of Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) in India: Assessment and Challenges
πΉ Why in News & Recent Development
India has completed one decade of the Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) framework, originally instituted in 2016. A ten-year empirical review published in the Economic and Political Weekly (EPW) evaluated the real-world efficacy of this monetary architecture. The assessment revealed that while average inflation dropped from 6.8% in the pre-FIT period to 4.9% between 2016 and 2026, structural hurdles such as a flat New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and unanchored household inflation expectations continue to challenge demand-driven monetary tightening.
πΉ Key Conceptual & Analytical Details
Under the statutory framework of Section 45-ZA of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 (inserted via the Finance Act, 2016 based on the Urjit Patel Committee recommendations), the Central Government, in consultation with the RBI, fixes the inflation target every five years. The target has been retained at 4% with a tolerance band of +/- 2% (2% to 6%) for the period extending from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2031, using the Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-Combined).
Key analytical concerns highlighted include:
- Flat Phillips Curve: Empirical data between April 2012 and March 2026 shows a weak trade-off between domestic output and inflation, meaning aggressive repo rate hikes risk suppressing economic growth and employment without achieving proportionate disinflation.
- Informal Sector Wage Dynamics: Since nearly 92% of India's workforce is in the informal sector with little wage-bargaining power, standard New Keynesian assumptions of wage-push inflation do not hold.
- Supply-Side Drivers: Indian retail inflation is structurally dominated by food and fuel shocks, which monetary tools cannot directly rectify.
πΉ Strategic Importance & Future Impact
To bolster the efficacy of monetary policy without inducing unnecessary growth penalties, structural reforms have been proposed. These include establishing a institutionalized Joint Food Inflation Response Cell between the RBI and the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, setting explicit indicators for monitoring second-round inflationary effects, enhancing interest rate pass-through to informal finance (via NBFCs and MFIs), and reintroducing liquid Retail Inflation-Indexed Bonds to prevent household flight into physical gold assets.